[ILUG] The ILUG signal/noise ratio is getting really bad

Sun Oct 8 21:37:06 IST 2006

  | Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 20:31:42 +0200
  | From: Brian Foster <blf at blf.utvinternet.ie>
  | 
  |   | Date: Wed, 4 Oct 2006 15:04:17 +0100
  |   | From: Niall O Broin <niall at linux.ie>
  |   | Subject: Re: [ILUG] The ILUG signal/noise ratio is getting really bad
  |   | 
  |   | On 4 Oct 2006, at 14:46, Denis Hennessy wrote:
  |   | > [ over the last 4 days ] of the first 30 message threads,
  |   | > 24 were spam.
  |   | 
  |   | [... ] I have noticed a slight increase in spam lately [ ... ]
  |[ ... ]
  |  my informal statistics are spam (in general, not specifically
  |  from the list) skyrocketed about one year ago, dipped for a
  |  month or two early in this year, and then zoomed up again,
  |  with a high percentage of recent stuff being either p0rn,
  |  phishing frauds, or pump-and-dump frauds; i.e., mostly or
  |  entirely criminal (in perhaps the moral and probably the
  |  legal senses, as well as the sheer obnoxiousness sense).
  | 
  |  ( I keep meaning to put some solid numbers on these
  |   impressions; I have all the data, so maybe that's
  |   this weekend's project? )

 indeed, I can now put some solid numbers to the incoming
 (pre-filtered) spam I've received since Jan-2003 (all my
 2002 data was dodgy so I have completely omitted it):

YYYY-MM ILUG Other %age ILUG=* Other=+ scale=0.025113 (1 + or * is c.40 spams)
2003-01   58    60  49%  *++
2003-02    6    65   8%  *++
2003-03   19   152  11%  *++++
2003-04    6   113   5%  *+++
2003-05   17   136  11%  *+++
2003-06   14    80  15%  *++
2003-07   15    91  14%  *++
2003-08   42    51  45%  *+
2003-09   30   219  12%  *+++++
2003-10   10   326   3%  *++++++++
2003-11   12   349   3%  *+++++++++
2003-12   30   293   9%  *+++++++
2004-01   27   160  14%  *++++
2004-02   44   264  14%  *+++++++
2004-03   50   228  18%  *++++++
2004-04   75   146  34%  **++++
2004-05   46   204  18%  *+++++
2004-06   81   244  25%  **++++++
2004-07   10   212   5%  *+++++
2004-08   12   215   5%  *+++++
2004-09    4   258   2%  *++++++
2004-10    8   291   3%  *+++++++
2004-11    7   474   1%  *++++++++++++
2004-12   10   573   2%  *++++++++++++++
2005-01    4   614   1%  *+++++++++++++++
2005-02    5   472   1%  *++++++++++++
2005-03    3   408   1%  *++++++++++
2005-04    4   332   1%  *++++++++
2005-05    7   321   2%  *++++++++
2005-06   15   295   5%  *+++++++
2005-07    3   391   1%  *++++++++++
2005-08    1   339   0%  *+++++++++
2005-09   22   366   6%  *+++++++++
2005-10    6   388   2%  *++++++++++
2005-11   11   424   3%  *+++++++++++
2005-12   23   617   4%  *+++++++++++++++
2006-01   13   751   2%  *+++++++++++++++++++
2006-02    9   553   2%  *++++++++++++++
2006-03   15   604   2%  *+++++++++++++++
2006-04   13  1062   1%  *+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2006-05   25  1525   2%  *++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2006-06   25  1634   2%  *+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2006-07   31  1584   2%  *++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2006-08   63  1808   3%  **+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2006-09   51  1940   3%  *+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2006-10   32   413   7%  *++++++++++   (prior to 08-Oct-2006)
total = 1014 22045   4.4% via ILUG (67 additional spams ignored)

 eyeballing the numbers / first impressions ....
  for me, the spam jumped not one but two years ago,
 from c.100/month first to 250+/month, and jumped again
 a year ago, to c.500/month, was decreasing but started
 ramping up and recently skyrocketed through the roof
 and is now running at c.2000/month.  in total, this
 is a 20x increase in the rate of this fraudulent b*s*
 in just two years!
 ( I have deliberately excluded all non-spam (i.e., legit)
  e-mails from the summary, but it is fair to say spam now
  totally dominates the incoming e-mails. )

  the amount coming through this list has increased in
 absolute terms (perhaps to be expected), but _also_ as
 a percentage of the total.  it seems to track my own
 rate tolerably well, suggesting the skyrocketing rate
 is indeed a wider phenomenon.  and it is approaching
 the historical high of c.80/month in June-2004.

  my data-set does not, ATM, separate out pump-and-dump
 frauds from other spams, but does separate out nigerian,
 phishing, and lottery scams.  (I neglected to include
 the lottery fraud in the above data, so will continue
 to ignore it.)  the nigerian and phishing frauds, which
 are included in the above, summarise as:

YYYY-MM ILUG Other %age [ ... ]
total =   59  1449   3.9% via ILUG (21 additional spams ignored)

 or c.6.6% of all the spams, which is much lower than I
 had guessed.  OTOH, _if_ those frauds are (now) using
 the spam-hiding techniques the pump-and-dump criminals
 use, that subtotal must be understated.  these frauds
 seem to have jumped from a rate of c.50 to c.150/month
 about the same time spams in general skyrocketed.

  whilst p0rn is also included in the above data, very
 little (essentially none) comes via the ILUG.  I've no
 idea why I've been bombarded with the stuff recently,
 but the trend is, fortunately, in the right direction.

  so what has this to do with Linux?  in the context of
 this list, only that there is a growing problem.
 since I have excluded legit e-mails, I cannot provide
 a S/N ratio, but my impression is the legit/spam ratio
 is still very much on the good side.  but there is a
 trend towards more spam, which seems to be part of a
 wider trend, and hence the legit/spam ratio is probably
 heading in the wrong direction.

cheers!
	-blf-
-- 
Experienced (20+ yrs) kernel/software Eng: | Brian Foster   Montpellier,
 • Unix, embedded, &tc;  • Linux;  • doc;  | blf at utvinternet.ie   FRANCE
 • IDL, automated testing, process, &tc.   |  Stop E$$o (ExxonMobile)!
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